Pernod is trading at its lowest ratio since 2009, the investment thesis is that I believe we have sufficient visibility into the future to project a return of growth at MSD and capture thePE rerating
Wine wallet share of alcool has dropped 33% (from 20% share to 15%). Beer has lost 2% of market share. Spirits went from 35% to 40% between 2014 to 2024. Overall consumption of alcool went up. So we are fine. Demographic change happens very very slowly. GenZ are more into spirits than wine and beer for sure. Cocktail generation.
First section of the Pernod Ricard universal reference report 2025.
wine is not the right place to be. I think the decision fro mgt to get out of the wine business - Jacobs creek etc.. is the right one. Beer seems in statuquo - decline in volume counterbalance by price. Spirit is growing - both volume and price slowly but growing.
Very good analysis! I'm also long Pernod and Diageo. Let's hope that the boomers don't stop drinking and Gen Z is not too much into healthy living 😉
Wine wallet share of alcool has dropped 33% (from 20% share to 15%). Beer has lost 2% of market share. Spirits went from 35% to 40% between 2014 to 2024. Overall consumption of alcool went up. So we are fine. Demographic change happens very very slowly. GenZ are more into spirits than wine and beer for sure. Cocktail generation.
Interesting statistics, from where did you get those numbers?
First section of the Pernod Ricard universal reference report 2025.
wine is not the right place to be. I think the decision fro mgt to get out of the wine business - Jacobs creek etc.. is the right one. Beer seems in statuquo - decline in volume counterbalance by price. Spirit is growing - both volume and price slowly but growing.
Why buy this instead of Brown-Forman?
Better returns. U.S. company so no trading tax, less corporate tax, and management more incentivized to deliver returns