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Carl Malartre's avatar

Great work thanks! Some stuff that came to mind while reading:

- Braintree is raising it's price, the market for large merchant might become less competitive

- I think the zero for number 10 passing savings might be a 2: Tobias Lutke/SHOP CEO in an all-in podcast, and other sources, explain how they shift from saving money (lower prices) to creating revenues with the higher authorization rate in their client negociation. If you create revenues.. you pass savings allowing a higher total fee IMHO. I also think they did not flex their pricing, so did not demonstrate a moat on how much they could charge.. yet.

- Owning bank charters allows Adyen to give the money faster to its client, enabling more savings and cashflow.

- Large multi-national market is not the same as smaller merchants market. I think we mix both market in our analysis, mixing two moat measure.

I used ChatGPT to summarize morningstar article on Adyen's moat:

• Adyen’s full-stack platform directly connects merchants to issuers, reducing intermediaries and enabling higher authorization rates.

• Its growing transaction volume continuously improves fraud detection and acceptance optimization, strengthening its intangible asset advantage.

• A single, global platform covering multiple payment methods and channels gives merchants a seamless solution with one contract.

• Local acquiring licenses and a European banking license make Adyen independent of legacy banking infrastructure.

• Authorization rate improvements shift the focus from cost savings to revenue growth, supporting premium pricing.

• Knowledge gained from each merchant transaction benefits all merchants on the platform, creating a network effect.

• Adyen repeatedly gains wallet share from existing large, global merchants as they observe higher success rates.

• Consolidation of fraud tools and best practices for multiple countries and payment methods protects merchants more effectively.

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Guiom's avatar

Great article!

I also think Adyen is a great opportunity.

But I think you're missing a major risk in the disruption category = stablecoin payments.

It's coming faster than we expect.

Paypal has launched their pyUSD, Stripe just made a >1bn acquisition very recently.

As this guy puts it:

"Traditional payments: 6 intermediaries, 2% fees, 6-day delays

Stablecoin payments: 2 steps, 0.2% fees, instant settlement"

https://x.com/eco/status/1870847013723505151

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