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anon's avatar

as an infrequent online retailer, could this simply be that amazon is carving off non-economic delivery zones? not sure what the price they will pay in customer confusion...., but it is likely they will cut targeted ads to IP addresses in those zones.

there will be very little obvious other than longer delivery options for those already looking at a payment screen.

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@Govro12 WinterGems Stocks's avatar

I live 10km from the center of an urban area in a wealthy suburban area - of a 4 million people city . Amazon just screwed by closing all warehouses due to union fear. I used to get my shipment in 24 hours or less. I cannot be in a better delivery sweet spot Than that

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anon's avatar

ok, how will amazon message this to affected locals other than ignoring it?

i personally have never 'bought' (literally) into the prime shopping moat, and always felt if people can switch their online banking in an hour, than changing retail is even easier.

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@Govro12 WinterGems Stocks's avatar

If even a long time positively bias shareholder is angry about Amazon... imagine the rest of the locals.. People just switch off of Amazon here - They completely disappeared from the map IMO. I started to go back to RL stores like most of the population I think. This will all be positive for the local retailer IMO. Good riddance.

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@Govro12 WinterGems Stocks's avatar

Thanks James ! The key reason I started this blog is to get these healthy exchange going! I dont care who is wrong or right I just want that from publishing these posts or via comments - clarity on a business will raise.

I really like the hyperscaler business. I was a heavy user of AWS at the time - I am a cloud engineer - I bought my first large stake in amazon (10%) in 2016 when AWS operating income was disclosed. At the time AWS represented 90% of operating income if I recall. Now it is roughly 50%. I think AWS is not as entranched as it were in 2016 due to AI for the reasons i mentioned in my post. Amazon at the beginning of the year represented 25% of my portfolio.

On advertising this is 90% related to ecommerce. I view this has a tax to 3rd party sellers on amazon. So if ecommerce fall in Canada ads will follow. Ads is also related to prime but prime us related to ecommerce

Kuiper is a me too initialtives ala starlink that will probably fail. Zoox i am not aware.

As a disclosure YTD a cut my position roughly by half. Amazon still represents 12%+ of portfolio. Not sure about the rest. This type of exchange are fruitful.

Thanks again James

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James Emanuel's avatar

Not sure Kuiper will fail. Starlink is more likely to hit problems due to Musk. I speak about that in my analysis. Taiwan Government is going with Kuiper because it doesn't like Musk. Tesla share price has collapsed since Musk have become so political. He is making enemies everywhere.

Check it out in my article. Look at Zoox too. There are lots of robotaxis, but they are all regular cars adapted for self driving. Zoox is different. It is a pure robotaxi with many advantages.

https://rockandturner.substack.com/p/amazon-the-everything-company

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@Govro12 WinterGems Stocks's avatar

I often leave ship early... I left couche tard monster apple a few years earlier than I should have when I felt there was no high growth in the tank.. but I am typically right. Since I left Apple growth is NULL but the stock still went up due to PE expansion, the same with monster, couche tard is running out of acquisition - 7 eleven will be very expansive if it happen.. I think Amazon is getting in that stage.. Growth will not be strong - margin expansion will stagnate.. I am happy to have sell shares at 235 earlier this year- will sell the rest at 210 tomorrow.

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James Emanuel's avatar

You are assuming that e-commerce is the entire business. In terms of bottom line profit generation, it is no longer a major part of the business. Other high margin segments are growing fast - AWS and advertising for example. Plus there are new exciting segments: Kuiper, Zoox, etc. Amazon is unique because it imitates nature by evolving as the landscape changes. By 2010 it was very different to how it was in 2000. By 2020 it was very different to how it was in 2010. What do you think it will be in 2030?

Amazon is not like any of the other companies that you list.

AWS, a market leader in cloud infrastructure, is essentially an unregulated utility collecting rent from the rest of the world. Nice business with a huge growth runway ahead.

Your choice to divest, but you may come to regret it.

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Graoully's avatar

Good move!

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Comment removed
Mar 6
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@Govro12 WinterGems Stocks's avatar

This is totally NOT true. Were do you live ? do you have boots on the ground (Canada). I will remove this particular comment unless you justify within the next hour. Have you read my post?Have you followed the warehouse closing in Canada?

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