Dodging that FI fallout before the 47% crater was definitely smart timing. Sometimes cutting losses quickly on a position that doesn't feel right is the best move even if the rationale isn't fully clear at the time. The whole fintech payment processor space seems to be going through a majr reevaluation right now with increased competition and margin pressure. Better to be on the sidelines than catching that falling knife.
I am keeping my $ADYEN that I bought during the 50% drawdown in 2023, as this one might be different. Fintech (stripe, adyen, toast) seems to be winning over legacy but there could be something more profound than that. The USA middle class is really challenged. Discretionary spending like in restaurant is down (traffic wise). This will be though. $TOST is tomorrow - Nov4 - so we might get a better feel of the restaurant business as a whole.
also when something like fiserv fall 50% in one shot... patience is warranted. Typically need to wait 2 weeks minimum before a rotation from garp or fast growth to value fund occur. Often it takes a few months. Look at Netflix chart. It took a full 2 month from the break from 415 to 215$ to end up around 175$. I bought most of my shares mistakenly at 215-210$.. But if I had waited 2 more month it was 175$.. I bought some at 180$ but I had build already a full positions. The same happen to me for Adyen. It took about 2month to stabilize.
Selling a stock after so long is something I aspire to do one day.
I really love your call here, you would never buy it at p/e 100, so you should sell it, even after holding for so long.
I personally would really love a whole write up on this:
"I went all in in Net Net Kikukawa thinking I could take a few % of the stocks and start convincing the management to do massive buyback. I decided to exit as this is not my cup of tea."
What about it is not for you, how does one even go about it?
https://www.wintergems.com/p/a-net-cash-kikukawa-enterprise-2025 I wrote about this company - I took a large position on this one... I thought since its market cap is smaller than the cash level I could go activist by buying a few %.. Then sending a letter to management which does not have control of the company to initiate a large buyback. I may still proceed on that. For now I am not sure I have the skill nor the energy to do that fight. This is a foreign country.
Dodging that FI fallout before the 47% crater was definitely smart timing. Sometimes cutting losses quickly on a position that doesn't feel right is the best move even if the rationale isn't fully clear at the time. The whole fintech payment processor space seems to be going through a majr reevaluation right now with increased competition and margin pressure. Better to be on the sidelines than catching that falling knife.
I am keeping my $ADYEN that I bought during the 50% drawdown in 2023, as this one might be different. Fintech (stripe, adyen, toast) seems to be winning over legacy but there could be something more profound than that. The USA middle class is really challenged. Discretionary spending like in restaurant is down (traffic wise). This will be though. $TOST is tomorrow - Nov4 - so we might get a better feel of the restaurant business as a whole.
also when something like fiserv fall 50% in one shot... patience is warranted. Typically need to wait 2 weeks minimum before a rotation from garp or fast growth to value fund occur. Often it takes a few months. Look at Netflix chart. It took a full 2 month from the break from 415 to 215$ to end up around 175$. I bought most of my shares mistakenly at 215-210$.. But if I had waited 2 more month it was 175$.. I bought some at 180$ but I had build already a full positions. The same happen to me for Adyen. It took about 2month to stabilize.
Wow, great write up.
Selling a stock after so long is something I aspire to do one day.
I really love your call here, you would never buy it at p/e 100, so you should sell it, even after holding for so long.
I personally would really love a whole write up on this:
"I went all in in Net Net Kikukawa thinking I could take a few % of the stocks and start convincing the management to do massive buyback. I decided to exit as this is not my cup of tea."
What about it is not for you, how does one even go about it?
Do you know people that have experience in that.
Thanks.
And many thanks for the kind words
https://www.wintergems.com/p/a-net-cash-kikukawa-enterprise-2025 I wrote about this company - I took a large position on this one... I thought since its market cap is smaller than the cash level I could go activist by buying a few %.. Then sending a letter to management which does not have control of the company to initiate a large buyback. I may still proceed on that. For now I am not sure I have the skill nor the energy to do that fight. This is a foreign country.
Always a great read. Been a pretty good year for bombardier so far.