I wonder why you added to Dollarama as it is relatively still expensive ... and same for ARM ?
And could you share more light on the reduced position in Alphabet (afraid of Capex, and play this increase with ARM) and Bombardier (was it the Middle East conflict or just the last year performance that made you take profit) ?
Dollarama is my staple stock and went down 40$ while everything in the business is going well... 4% SSS in Canada, 28% sales growth in Central america and Mexico, and they are just starting to transform 400 stores in Australia to a real dollar stores!
Dollarcity and Australia are becoming a new and strong vector of growth. Dollarcity has increase sales by 28% and equity earnings total 70m or 21% increase.. Mexico rollout has started. So about 11% of total profit right now.
Australia is already contributing with 15m in operating income in this quarter versus -10m in the first quarter of integration.. this could be due to seasonality...
ARM: How to justify the unjustifiable...Arm I got over-excited over the decision to finally make there chips. Might do 9$ of EPS in 5 years. Super expensive.. Might be those momentary lapse of reason event .. Will likely trim lol
Alphabet... automatic sales as over 25% on Jan 2nd ..also basically sold 2/3 of what I bought at half price in April. No change on 2004 LT position. Open AI is going in disarray... the main threat for 2 years. Claude is going strong but does not seem to intersect with consumer mindshare. So all his good for Google.
Bombardier... automatic sales as over 25% on Jan 2nd ..nothing to worry here.
The subprime lending (26% Non performing asset) is definitely subprime - is becoming a larger and larger portion of the business and the profit. This is not a business I want to invest in. 2026 feels like 1999 or 2007 or 1979 and I dont want to be caught like in 2000 or 2008 with subprime loans or emerging high tech co. Learn my lesson got my t-shirt!
Thanks for the question Emerging value. Regarding my latest purchase mn my latest portfolio post I stated that I made a recent RI purchase @63euro.
Regarding my recent purchase This is a event driven buy for RI @ 63euro and BF.b @26.7 - my BF is a bit less so it did not make the top16 poistion... - based on ongoing discussion of merger of equal between RI and BF.b I believe this merger will be very strong from a synergies point of view and would make the entity the largest spirit company. Since BF is less indebted it would reduce the relative debt level. It would also make it easier to break the dividend payout which is currently not sustainable for RI.. There is a good probability that this happens as both company are suffering terribly. Here is what the press release from Brown Foman said :
We note the recent market rumors regarding a potential business combination involving Brown-Forman and Pernod Ricard. Brown-Forman regularly explores and evaluates strategic opportunities, and can confirm it is engaged in discussions with Pernod Ricard.
If agreed and subject to customary approvals, this partnership would be akin to a merger of equals, drawing from the talent and expertise of both companies, and creating value for shareholders.
Synergies from the contemplated combination are expected to be significant, creating a global spirits leader with enhanced scale, a powerful brand portfolio, and a balanced geographic footprint, all anchored by two iconic families. No agreement has been reached as to the terms of any possible transaction, and there can be no assurance that any such agreement will be reached.
Brown-Forman does not intend to comment further unless and until an agreement is reached.”
Regarding RI specifically:
Aa you said The Free fall is really a geographic specific fall. Sales are in free fall in China. Were in free fall in USA but things are stabilizing in Jan and Feb according to the most recent transcript. The rest India, Canada, SA, Europe is stable or up in Q2. So besides China, Q3 should be stable or up... So worst case if the merger is not consumed I would probably not loose too much here.
I was impressed by the gross margin gain on both premium users and ads. Overall margin was more or less stuck at 25% - music studio share - since going public. Now with all the added value to music GM is improving every quarter now at 34.8% for the premium, 20% for ads. Even more importantly they are cutting on expenses (R&D), and so operating income almost double YoY in Q4. 2026 Forward EPS is expected to be 15$ (13 Euro) and has 50$ in cash. So, when I bought at 410$ - it was trading at 25x earnings ex cash. Premium MAU has grown 15% CAGR in the past 5 years. With 470m ads supported users, they are a lot of young customers that will switch to premium over the next 5 years. àif you add GM improvement and tight control on expenses, EPS could grow in the 20% CAGR for a long time. Lots of value here with almost no risk on disruption.
Thank you for providing that insight. At 410 dollars the valuation was definitely more attractive than at the highs in 2025. I like your view of treating current ad-supported users as future premium subscribers but I think there could be a disruption risk from youtube premium.
I wonder why you added to Dollarama as it is relatively still expensive ... and same for ARM ?
And could you share more light on the reduced position in Alphabet (afraid of Capex, and play this increase with ARM) and Bombardier (was it the Middle East conflict or just the last year performance that made you take profit) ?
Dollarama is my staple stock and went down 40$ while everything in the business is going well... 4% SSS in Canada, 28% sales growth in Central america and Mexico, and they are just starting to transform 400 stores in Australia to a real dollar stores!
Dollarcity and Australia are becoming a new and strong vector of growth. Dollarcity has increase sales by 28% and equity earnings total 70m or 21% increase.. Mexico rollout has started. So about 11% of total profit right now.
Australia is already contributing with 15m in operating income in this quarter versus -10m in the first quarter of integration.. this could be due to seasonality...
ARM: How to justify the unjustifiable...Arm I got over-excited over the decision to finally make there chips. Might do 9$ of EPS in 5 years. Super expensive.. Might be those momentary lapse of reason event .. Will likely trim lol
Alphabet... automatic sales as over 25% on Jan 2nd ..also basically sold 2/3 of what I bought at half price in April. No change on 2004 LT position. Open AI is going in disarray... the main threat for 2 years. Claude is going strong but does not seem to intersect with consumer mindshare. So all his good for Google.
Bombardier... automatic sales as over 25% on Jan 2nd ..nothing to worry here.
Thanks a lot for the insights, highly appreciated! Why did you exit MELI, do you see increased competition from Shopee and the likes?
The subprime lending (26% Non performing asset) is definitely subprime - is becoming a larger and larger portion of the business and the profit. This is not a business I want to invest in. 2026 feels like 1999 or 2007 or 1979 and I dont want to be caught like in 2000 or 2008 with subprime loans or emerging high tech co. Learn my lesson got my t-shirt!
Interesting. Pernod Ricard is cheap but sales are in Freefall. How do you justify buying now?
Thanks for the question Emerging value. Regarding my latest purchase mn my latest portfolio post I stated that I made a recent RI purchase @63euro.
Regarding my recent purchase This is a event driven buy for RI @ 63euro and BF.b @26.7 - my BF is a bit less so it did not make the top16 poistion... - based on ongoing discussion of merger of equal between RI and BF.b I believe this merger will be very strong from a synergies point of view and would make the entity the largest spirit company. Since BF is less indebted it would reduce the relative debt level. It would also make it easier to break the dividend payout which is currently not sustainable for RI.. There is a good probability that this happens as both company are suffering terribly. Here is what the press release from Brown Foman said :
We note the recent market rumors regarding a potential business combination involving Brown-Forman and Pernod Ricard. Brown-Forman regularly explores and evaluates strategic opportunities, and can confirm it is engaged in discussions with Pernod Ricard.
If agreed and subject to customary approvals, this partnership would be akin to a merger of equals, drawing from the talent and expertise of both companies, and creating value for shareholders.
Synergies from the contemplated combination are expected to be significant, creating a global spirits leader with enhanced scale, a powerful brand portfolio, and a balanced geographic footprint, all anchored by two iconic families. No agreement has been reached as to the terms of any possible transaction, and there can be no assurance that any such agreement will be reached.
Brown-Forman does not intend to comment further unless and until an agreement is reached.”
Regarding RI specifically:
Aa you said The Free fall is really a geographic specific fall. Sales are in free fall in China. Were in free fall in USA but things are stabilizing in Jan and Feb according to the most recent transcript. The rest India, Canada, SA, Europe is stable or up in Q2. So besides China, Q3 should be stable or up... So worst case if the merger is not consumed I would probably not loose too much here.
What made you add so significantly to your Spotify position?
I was impressed by the gross margin gain on both premium users and ads. Overall margin was more or less stuck at 25% - music studio share - since going public. Now with all the added value to music GM is improving every quarter now at 34.8% for the premium, 20% for ads. Even more importantly they are cutting on expenses (R&D), and so operating income almost double YoY in Q4. 2026 Forward EPS is expected to be 15$ (13 Euro) and has 50$ in cash. So, when I bought at 410$ - it was trading at 25x earnings ex cash. Premium MAU has grown 15% CAGR in the past 5 years. With 470m ads supported users, they are a lot of young customers that will switch to premium over the next 5 years. àif you add GM improvement and tight control on expenses, EPS could grow in the 20% CAGR for a long time. Lots of value here with almost no risk on disruption.
Thank you for providing that insight. At 410 dollars the valuation was definitely more attractive than at the highs in 2025. I like your view of treating current ad-supported users as future premium subscribers but I think there could be a disruption risk from youtube premium.