Alani Nu re-accelerating under Celsius System

Aluni Nu brand has re-accelerated at almost triple digits since Celsius Holding Acquisition on April 1st 2025

Cosmic Stardust is a good name for the rocket like growth of Alani Nu since it was integrated into the Celsius System!

Legal Disclaimer: All content published on Wintergems is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not intended to serve as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The views expressed are my own and are subject to change without notice. The information provided here is proprietary. I make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided and will not be liable for any losses, injuries, or damages from the display or use of this information. Readers are solely responsible for their own investment decisions.

I was revisiting Celsius Holding this week as it plunged to interesting level of 34$ on the news that Costco is starting to sell private label energy drink with a look highly similar to Celsius energy drink. Costco represents 10% of sales, so impact is limited.

1 Year price action of Celsius Holding:

So here is what is interesting. Oftentimes, a company buys a popular product and due to integration or corporate culture issues or egos, growth starts to slow. This is not the case here. A year ago, Alani Nu sales growth started to slow down at around 50% YoY growth. Q3 2024 and Q4 2024 sales were $164 million and $154 million respectively. No visibility on Q1, but once Alani Nu was integrated into the Celsius System (on 1st April 2025) and progressively into the Pepsi distribution system later in the year, sales re-accelerated in the triple digits.

You can see the Alani Nu sales and the big Q2 2025 jump in sales once the acquisition was completed.

What should we expect for 2026?

In high growth story, I typically use a conservative projection of simply inter-poling absolute numbers. You can observe in this case that Alani Nu sales are adding $35 million sequentially pretty consistently. Assuming this scenario, sales in 2026 could be 390 million (adjusted for seasonally weak Q1), 425 million (conservative), 460 million, 495 million. In this straight line linear projection, Alani sales would be $1770 million.

Here is what management said about Alani Nu and Celsius in the latest call:

As expected, the transition of Alani into Pepsi drove increased orders and strong execution, which in turn impacted reported results for brand CELSIUS as we manage the timing and sequencing of inventory movements within the Pepsi system as we balance the Alani load-in with total inventory across the network. As a result, scanner data is a healthy 12.8% for the quarter.

As a result, for the full year, brand CELSIUS delivered $1.46 billion of net sales, growing 7.5% year-over-year. So combining everything for the fourth quarter, consolidated revenue was approximately $722 million and full year consolidated revenue was $2.5 billion, including having 2 billion-dollar brands.

CELSIUS brand retail sales increased 12.8% year over year for the 13-week period ended Dec. 28, 2025,¹⁵ and brand CELSIUS held a 10.9% dollar share in the U.S. RTD energy category for the period¹⁶.

Alani Nu retail sales increased 76.9% year over year for the 13-week period ended Dec. 28, 2025,¹⁷ continuing its category outperformance driven by strong innovation, distribution and adoption by new consumers. The brand held a 6.7% dollar share in the U.S. RTD energy category for the period¹⁸. Celsius Holdings acquired the Alani Nu brand on April 1, 2025.

So scanner data is showing a 12.8% growth for the quarter and sales for Celsius reached $1.46 billion in net sales, versus $1.355 billion in 2024.

As such, if we project similar growth of 8% for 2026, Celsius brand could lead to $1 570 million.

Rockstar revenue in latest quarter was $45 million. So assuming some further decline, we could use $150 million in 2026 for Rockstar.

Management is projecting a return to the low 50% margin in 2026, so lets increase operating margin to 22% from 21.5%.

So sales should be close to $3 500 million in 2026, up around 40%. This would lead to a operating income of $770 million. 2025 EBIT is $540 million The stock is trading at 20x EV/EBIT trailing.

It has about 250 million in net debt plus a $1.7 billion in preference shares issued to Pepsi, so add 2 billion to the market cap to get the EV. By the end of 2026, the stock should be net cash.

So next year, based on the growth scenario described below, if the stock trades at the same ratio of 20x EV/EBIT, the stock should rebound to 56$.

Fat pitch in my opinion. Love those 40/20… No investment advice, do your own research. Lets discuss below what are your views? I have not describe both brands in terms of positioning etc.. but feel free to ask questions or comments even anecdotic.

Legal Disclaimer: All content published on Wintergems is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not intended to serve as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The views expressed are my own and are subject to change without notice. The information provided here is proprietary. I make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided and will not be liable for any losses, injuries, or damages from the display or use of this information. Readers are solely responsible for their own investment decisions.